Conclusion

This project integrates atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamic theory, observational records, and reanalysis data to assess how climate change is influencing tropical cyclone behavior in the Western North Pacific and around the Korean Peninsula. Our findings highlight several consistent signals emerging across theory, observations, and global climate model projections.

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First, rising sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture—direct consequences of anthropogenic warming—enhance the energy available for cyclone development. This is reflected in stronger pressure gradients (via gradient-wind balance), a more pronounced warm-core structure (hydrostatic balance), and an increase in theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI). These physical frameworks align with the intensification tendencies seen in recent decades.

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Second, the observational analysis (KMA, IBTrACS, ERA5) shows that although the total number of typhoons displays high natural variability with no clear long-term trend, there is growing evidence for:

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Higher peak intensities,

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More frequent rapid intensification events,

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Increased extreme rainfall, consistent with Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, and

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A poleward and westward shift in tracks, increasing the exposure of the Korean Peninsula.

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Finally, CMIP6 model projections and IPCC assessments suggest that these trends are likely to continue as the climate warms, with strong storms becoming more frequent and rainfall hazards intensifying.

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Overall, our results underscore that climate change is not necessarily increasing the number of typhoons, but is making the strongest ones even more dangerous. This reinforces the need for climate-informed disaster preparedness, improved forecasting, and long-term adaptation planning for regions vulnerable to tropical cyclones, including Korea.